Wimbledon Final 2012: Andy Murray vs Roger Federer

Well, what a Friday at Wimbledon that was.

Roger Federer produced a staggering display of grass-court excellence to topple defending champion Djokovic in 4 sets. Becoming the first man ever to make 8 Wimbledon Finals and proving that he is not going to step aside for the younger generation anytime soon.

Andy Murray had a trademark rollercoaster match with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, making it look so easy in the first two sets- and so hard in the following two. However he came through, to rapturous applause on Centre Court, Henman Hill and a lot of people huddled around TV's all over Britain. As I'm sure we've heard, the first British Mens finalist since Bunny Austin in 1938

Match Preview

Andy Murray comes into this match with an 8-7 head to head advantage against Federer. However before we get too excited lets break these match-ups down. 

Fed has won their only encounters at majors- and in a best of 5-set format. He beat Murray in both the US Open final (2008) and the Australian Open final (2010) in straight sets. In both of these matches two things happened; Federer played the devastating, aggressive tennis that at the time seemed to leave everyone but Nadal in the shade- and Murray stepped back, looked slightly overawed by the occasion and played below his usual high-standard.

Interestingly, despite being active on the tour at a top level since about 2005, Murray has never met Federer on any other surface but hard-court. We have no grass-court matches to draw any ideas from, however we all know that Federer brings his best game to the green stuff. Murray seems very comfortable on the grass this year, he is moving well- returning well and hasn't looked too uncomfortable at the net. 

Murray has to undertake the biggest task of his career.

Federer's Chances

Federer will go into this match feeling very good about his level of play and opponent in the final. He played exceptional tennis in the 3rd set against Djokovic yesterday, and his serve was almost untouchable in the first set. Honestly if he serves like he did in the first- from memory I think it was about 75% first serves- then it is going to be very difficult for Murray to beat him. However I don't see Federer sustaining that kind of serving over 3, 4 or 5 sets. He knows his game plan against Murray will be to step in the court, play first strike tennis and to work Murray into some positioning errors which he can be capable off.

Also this is a familiar scene for Federer- in a Grand Slam final at a venue where he has made 7 before and won 6 of them. He knows what it takes, and what it feels like to be the victor here- and he's not fighting the undeniable pressure that Murray has heaped upon him. 

Murray's Chances

Murray steps into this match with (Cliche warning!) the weight of a nations expectations on his shoulders. He knows that this is undoubtedly the biggest match of his career. The pressure and expectation that he feels will of course affect his play, but although he himself says he is an underdog in this match-he knows he is very capable of winning this title.

He needs to return as well as he did against Cilic and Tsonga to make inroads on the Federer serve. He has to try and keep from playing too many points defensively- he possesses one of the great defenses in the history of the sport, however playing the majority of points like this against Fed on grass is going to be an uphill struggle. He has to serve well, as he has done almost unfailingly throughout these championships. I feel like getting to a good start and establishing a foothold in the match will be important, Federer can be devastating with a lead and it could be over very quickly if he is allowed to work up some momentum. 

Saying all this I think Murray has the game, and has proven it throughout his path to this years final, to finally take his first Grand Slam title here. 

Murray's road to the final

Murray came through probably the hardest draw to make a Grand-Slam Final I've ever seen. It seemed almost ridiculous on paper. He made swift work of former world no.3 and world-tour finals winner-Nikolay Davydenko in the first round 6-1, 6-1, 6-4. Then he came up against the monstrous serving of one 6ft 10in Croat by the name of Ivo Karlovic- eventually prevailing 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-2, 7-6 (4). In the third round he faced off against former Grand-Slam finalist now a charge of  Murray's former coach Miles Maclagan. In a dramatic race against time to finish by the 11pm curfew- Murray again found a way and came through 7-5, 3-6, 7-5, 6-1. Another tall Croat awaited him in the round of 16- Marin Cilic, who had defeated Murray at this stage in the 2009 and had a game seemingly tailored to grass. Murray didn't drop a set- winning 7-5, 6-2, 6-3.

Coming into the quarter-finals he faced the mental and physical wall that is world no.5 David Ferrer, who had crushed a former US Open champion in Juan Martin del Potro in the R16. Murray needed all of his determination, and a little bit of luck to not go to 5 sets- and came through in a dogfight of a 6-7 (5), 7-6 (6),  6-4, 7-6 (4) victory. Then finally, to take that step no British man has managed in 74 years, he had to dispose of Tsonga- a player possessed of mercurial, but extraordinary talent. He triumphed under all the expectation in 4 sets- 6-3, 6-4, 3-6, 7-5. 

Just look at the names in that draw! If he wanted to prove that he is worthy of a Grand Slam, winning here would have to silence all but the most ardent naysayer. 

Compare this to Federer's relatively straightforward draw, apart from the Djokovic semi, and its clear that Murray has had a far sterner challenge to make it to this stage. Murray has to feel good that he has really earned his spot out there on the biggest stage on Sunday.

So who is my prediction? 

I am going to take a shot on Murray to win in 5 sets. I think a lot is going to depend on the beginning of the match, and I think if Murray can sneak the first then he has a real chance. 

Ultimately I think its going to depend on what Murray steps out on court on Sunday, how his mental state is and how he deals with the inevitable pressure. He knows he deserves to be there, and he is a more mature player than the one that Federer has met in Slam titles in the past.

Whoever wins, we (as Brits) should be very proud of Murray's performance in making the final. I wish him all the best of luck and I am sure it's going to be an epic match on Sunday. Enjoy.